Noen fullblods kjøpsanbefaling er det riktignok ikke.
Molnes går fra Salg til Trading Buy, og i den kjappe åtte siders sektoranalysen som formidles til bergensmeglerens kunder fredag morgen fremgår en spådom om at laksemarkedet vil nå toppen i fjerde kvartal 2016 eller i første kvartal 2017.
Behersket optimisme
Navnet på analysen er da også «Trading Buy to scale the last Hillary Step to the peak». Her gis SalMar, Grieg Seafood og Norway Royal Salmon anbefalingen Trading Buy, mens Marine Harvest, Bakkafrost og Lerøy Seafood Group gis Hold-anbefaling.
Molnes har lenge vært bekymret for kostnadsutviklingen i laks. Samtidig bemerker han at oppdrettsnæringen er en syklisk bransje hvor svingningene mellom en sterk og en svak krone er viktige. Han har satt av god plass til å drøfte oljemarkedet, og utpeker OPEC-møtet i november som det første triggerpunkt.
Reke
På etterspørselssiden fremhever Molnes mulighetene som ligger i markedsføringskanaler som Facebook, Google og Youtube: «Just search for videos from: ‘Dansegruppen The Human Sushi’ and enjoy their Sashimi, Sushi and Maki med Reke Dances’. It is a key strength for a sector to be able to afford video advertising», skriver han.
Gullkornene kommer, som vanlig, på løpende bånd i analysen: «Salmon is a protein that incredibly enough competes with Chicken to be served as slices on top of your Restaurant salad. Earlier it was also the 2 most common lunch choices served at large corporate lunches because they are the two proteins that offend the fewest people.»
«No one now believes that salmon prices will drop below NOK 50 per kg, but if the NOK strengthens and US chicken follows grain and meat prices we can easily be there in May next year and that is not in anyone’s spreadsheet.»
Til Mars
Om Bakkafrosts aksjekurs skriver han: «looks like it has taken off in one of Elon Musk’s rockets to Mars to live on its own planet».
Selv om Molnes er den eneste lakseanalytiker som har hatt negativ anbefaling på sektoren i nær 1.000 dager, hindrer det ham ikke i å kritisere sine konkurrenter «The main weakness in all estimates is that we all probably have too low costs because we cannot believe how it has been possible to spend so much money that operating margins for all Norwegian farmers are 6 unchanged from 2012 to 2016».
Sherpa
«The six salmon farming stocks have behaved like they are just 2 different stocks with the farming stocks NRS, Salmar and Grieg Seafood as climbing stocks while Bakkafrost, Marine Harvest & Lerøy Seafood have performed more like sherpa stocks that have carried the loads for the climbers to the base camp until now. It is entirely possible that all 6 salmon farming stocks with both climbers and sherpas head together up the ‘Hillary Step’ to Mount Everest for the final push to the peak in this cycle», skriver han.
«The difference between climbing the Mount Everest and stocks is that no one rings the bell for you to mark any peak or bottom as you will have to find that out all by yourself because Salmon is neither a Consumer Staple, Consumer Cyclical, but more like a Consumer Unpredictable. The Norwegian saying in English for this is that ‘Nobody sees the full picture’ for the salmon industry. There are too many moving parts and delayed responses to make forecasting and investing in the sector easy», konkluderer Norne-analytikeren.
